{"id":482,"date":"2008-12-31T19:40:54","date_gmt":"2008-12-31T23:40:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/?p=482"},"modified":"2009-09-25T00:48:25","modified_gmt":"2009-09-25T04:48:25","slug":"false-prophets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/false-prophets\/","title":{"rendered":"false prophets"},"content":{"rendered":"

As the <\/em>Annus Horribilis finally comes to an end, many forecasters in the policy and financial communities have been left licking their wounds. This effort from Moises Naim and his team at Foreign Policy tries to capture the best of the worst and is certainly worth a look…
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

The 10 Worst Predictions for 2008<\/span><\/strong>
\nin Foreign Policy<\/a><\/p>\n

Prognostication is by far the riskiest form of punditry. The 10 commentators and leaders on this list learned that the hard way when their confident predictions about politics, war, the economy, and even the end of humanity itself completely missed the mark.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

ONE<\/strong>. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153If [Hillary Clinton] gets a race against John Edwards and Barack Obama, she\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s going to be the nominee. Gore is the only threat to her, then. \u00e2\u20ac\u00a6 Barack Obama is not going to beat Hillary Clinton in a single Democratic primary. I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ll predict that right now.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201dWilliam Kristol, Fox News Sunday<\/em>, Dec. 17, 2006<\/p>\n

Weekly Standard<\/em> editor and New York Times<\/em> columnist William Kristol was hardly alone in thinking that the Democratic primary was Clinton\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s to lose, but it takes a special kind of self-confidence to make a declaration this sweeping more than a year before the first Iowa caucus was held. After Iowa, Kristol lurched to the other extreme, declaring that Clinton would lose New Hampshire and that \u00e2\u20ac\u0153There will be no Clinton Restoration.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d It\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s also worth pointing out that this second wildly premature prediction was made in a Times<\/em> column titled, \u00e2\u20ac\u0153President Mike Huckabee?\u00e2\u20ac\u009d The Times<\/em> is currently rumored to be looking for his replacement.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

TWO<\/strong>. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Peter writes: \u00e2\u20ac\u02dcShould I be worried about Bear Stearns in terms of liquidity and get my money out of there?\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 No! No! No! Bear Stearns is fine! Do not take your money out. \u00e2\u20ac\u00a6 Bear Stearns is not in trouble. I mean, if anything they\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re more likely to be taken over. Don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t move your money from Bear! That\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s just being silly! Don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t be silly!\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201dJim Cramer, responding to a viewer\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s e-mail on CNBC\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Mad Money<\/em>, March 11, 2008<\/p>\n

Hopefully, Peter got a second opinion. Six days after the volatile CNBC host made his emphatic pronouncement, Bear Stearns faced the modern equivalent of an old-fashioned bank run. Amid widespread speculation on Wall Street about the bank\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s massive exposure to subprime mortgages, Bear\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s shares lost 90 percent of their value and the investment bank was sold for a pittance to JPMorgan Chase, with a last-minute assist from the U.S. Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

THREE<\/strong>. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153[In] reality the risks to maritime flows of oil are far smaller than is commonly assumed. First, tankers are much less vulnerable than conventional wisdom holds. Second, limited regional conflicts would be unlikely to seriously upset traffic, and terrorist attacks against shipping would have even less of an economic effect. Third, only a naval power of the United States\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 strength could seriously disrupt oil shipments.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201dDennis Blair and Kenneth Lieberthal, Foreign Affairs<\/em>, May\/June 2007<\/p>\n

On Nov. 15, 2008 a group of Somali pirates in inflatable rafts hijacked a Saudi oil tanker carrying 2 million barrels of crude in the Indian Ocean. The daring raid was part of a rash of attacks by Somali pirates, which have primarily occurred in the Gulf of Aden. Pirates operating in the waterway have hijacked more than 50 ships this year, up from only 13 in all of last year, according to the Piracy Reporting Center. The Gulf of Aden, where nearly 4 percent of the world\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s oil demand passes every day, was not on the list of strategic \u00e2\u20ac\u0153chokepoints\u00e2\u20ac\u009d where oil shipments could potentially be disrupted that Blair and Lieberthal included in their essay, \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Smooth Sailing: The World\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Shipping Lanes Are Safe.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d Hopefully, Blair will show a bit more foresight if, as some expect, he is selected as Barack Obama\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s director of national intelligence.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

FOUR<\/strong>. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153[A]nyone who says we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re in a recession, or heading into one\u00e2\u20ac\u201despecially the worst one since the Great Depression\u00e2\u20ac\u201dis making up his own private definition of \u00e2\u20ac\u02dcrecession.\u00e2\u20ac\u2122\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201dDonald Luskin, The Washington Post<\/em>, Sept. 14, 2008<\/p>\n

The day after Luskin\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s op-ed, \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Quit Doling Out That Bad-Economy Line,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d appeared in the Post<\/em>, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, and the rest is history. Liberal bloggers had long ago dubbed the Trend Macrolytics chief investment officer and informal McCain advisor \u00e2\u20ac\u0153the Stupidest Man Alive.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d This time, they had some particularly damning evidence.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

FIVE<\/strong>. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153For all its flaws, an example to others.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201dThe Economist<\/em> on Kenya\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s presidential election, Dec. 19, 2007<\/p>\n

The week before Kenya\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s presidential election, the erudite British newsweekly ran an ill-conceived editorial praising the quality of the country\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s democracy and predicting it might \u00e2\u20ac\u0153set an example\u00e2\u20ac\u009d for the rest of the continent. If only. The ensuing election was rife with examples of voter fraud and ballot-stuffing. What followed was a month of rioting and ethnic bloodshed that left more than 800 dead and 200,000 displaced. The carnage ended in a messy power-sharing agreement between President Mwai Kibaki and his challenger Raila Odinga, leaving the country deeply divided and its government delegitimized.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

SIX<\/strong>. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg will enter the Presidential race in February, after it becomes clear which nominees will get the nod from the major parties. His multiple billions and organization will impress voters\u00e2\u20ac\u201dand stun rivals. He\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ll look like the most viable third-party candidate since Teddy Roosevelt. But Bloomberg will come up short, as he comes in for withering attacks from both Democrats and Republicans. He and Clinton will split more than 50% of the votes, but Arizona\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s maverick senator, John McCain, will end up the country\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s next President.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201cBusinessWeek<\/em>, Jan. 2, 2008<\/p>\n

No part of this prediction from BusinessWeek<\/em>\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Ten Likely Events in 2008\u00e2\u20ac\u009d turned out to be even remotely true. After weeks of hints and press leaks, Bloomberg declared he would stay out of the race, saying that Barack Obama and John McCain showed signs of displaying the \u00e2\u20ac\u0153independent leadership\u00e2\u20ac\u009d needed to govern effectively. After overturning New York\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s term-limits law, Bloomberg seems likely to run for a third term as mayor instead.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

SEVEN<\/strong>. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153There is a real possibility of creating destructive theoretical anomalies such as miniature black holes, strangelets and deSitter space transitions. These events have the potential to fundamentally alter matter and destroy our planet.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201dWalter Wagner, LHCDefense.org <\/em><\/p>\n

Scientist Walter Wagner, the driving force behind Citizens Against the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), is making his bid to be the 21st century\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s version of Chicken Little for his opposition to the world\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s largest particle accelerator. Warning that the experiment might end humanity as we know it, he filed a lawsuit in Hawaii\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s U.S. District Court against the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), which built the LHC, demanding that researchers not turn the machine on until it was proved safe. The LHC was turned on in September, and it appears that we are still here.*<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

EIGHT<\/strong>. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201dArjun Murti, Goldman Sachs oil analyst, in a May 5, 2008, report<\/p>\n

The vaunted predictive powers of Murti, dubbed the \u00e2\u20ac\u0153oracle of oil\u00e2\u20ac\u009d in a glowing New York Times<\/em> profile, failed him this time. Oil prices peaked in July at about $147 a barrel before beginning a long decline. Thanks to a decrease in demand because of the global recession, prices are now nearing the $40 mark, and some experts even see $25 as a possibility next year.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

NINE<\/strong>. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153It starts with the taking over of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which has already happened. It goes on to the destruction of the Georgian armed forces, which is now happening. The third [development] will probably be the replacement of the elected government, which is pro-Western, with a puppet government, which will probably follow in a week or two.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201dCharles Krauthammer, Fox News<\/em>, Aug. 11, 2008<\/p>\n

Krauthammer immediately followed this inaccurate forecast (Russia eventually agreed to a cease-fire and pulled out its troops several weeks later, leaving Mikheil Saakashvili\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s government in place) by predicting that Ukraine would be next on Russia\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s hit list and suggesting that the United States station troops there. As for Saakashvili, his approval rating was at 76 percent in September.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

TEN<\/strong>. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153I believe the banking system has been stabilized. No one is asking themselves anymore, is there some major institution that might fail and that we would not be able to do anything about it.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201dHenry Paulson on National Public Radio, Nov. 13, 2008<\/p>\n

The U.S. Treasury secretary entered November with guns blazing. After much hemming and hawing before Congress a month earlier, he came out with what he called his \u00e2\u20ac\u0153bazooka\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201da $700 billion mandate to scoop up bad assets from troubled banks. By mid-November, he had already discharged $300 billion in munitions, albeit mostly via the kind of direct equity stakes he had rejected earlier. Unfortunately for Paulson, shortly after his vote of confidence, Citigroup\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s stock price plunged 75 percent in one week, closing below $5 for the first time in 14 years.<\/p>\n

*Wagner has written in to point out that the LHC broke down shortly after it was activated and that the particle collision experiments he\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s worried about haven\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t been conducted yet. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153The experiment has not yet even been performed, so of course its outcome remains uncertain,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d he writes. So, we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ll have to wait for 2009 to see if he is proved right.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the Annus Horribilis finally comes to an end, many forecasters in the policy and financial communities have been left licking their wounds. This effort from Moises Naim and his team at Foreign Policy tries to capture the best of the worst and is certainly worth a look…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_s2mail":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[21,12,1],"tags":[16,116,100,66],"class_list":["post-482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-financial-crisis","category-history-society","category-other","tag-economics","tag-forecasting","tag-obama","tag-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nfalse prophets - The Rational Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/false-prophets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"false prophets - The Rational Post\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As the Annus Horribilis finally comes to an end, many forecasters in the policy and financial communities have been left licking their wounds. 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