{"id":426,"date":"2008-12-01T13:27:27","date_gmt":"2008-12-01T17:27:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/?p=426"},"modified":"2009-09-22T00:30:30","modified_gmt":"2009-09-22T04:30:30","slug":"next-shoe-to-drop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/next-shoe-to-drop\/","title":{"rendered":"next shoe to drop"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.eqgroup.com\/images\/bankrupt-producer.jpg\" data-rel=\"lightbox-image-0\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-1074\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/12\/bankrupt-producer-300x300.jpg\" alt=\"bankrupt-producer\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/12\/bankrupt-producer-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/12\/bankrupt-producer-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/12\/bankrupt-producer.jpg 382w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>With all eyes on traditional residential mortgages, analysts are now looking for clues in related asset classes for any signs of recessionary contagion. In his weekly review of the U.S. economy, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rgemonitor.com\/blog\/roubini\/\">Nouriel Roubini<\/a> highlights the vulnerability of commercial mortgage back securities \u00e2\u20ac\u201c which typically lag their residential cousins by 2 years \u00e2\u20ac\u201c as well as plunging retail sales, a worsening inventory cycle, and the soaring fiscal deficit&#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><!--more-->Focus on the U.S. Economy<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.rgemonitor.com\" target=\"_blank\">RGE Monitor<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The current U.S. and global economic conditions, remain at the very least quite challenging. \u00c2\u00a0The good news is that President-elect Barack Obama has unveiled a <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=b2fd578b82faac762373c32f54cfb78a&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">first rate economic team<\/a> to drive the economy towards the recovery.\u00c2\u00a0 Larry Summers, Tim Geithner and Christina Romer are certainly <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=bf7ee3402e447efd1a84a36e9690d0ad&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">top rated experts and excellent choices<\/a> to address this most severe financial and economic crisis.\u00c2\u00a0 The bad news is that the recovery is not in sight yet and won\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t be for some time.<\/p>\n<p>The most recent set of events and the string of economic data are a clear sign that the crisis is not over, and the worst might very well be ahead of us.\u00c2\u00a0 On the one hand, <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=6e663a59ec7199e99f0945ef7e380bf0&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">consumer confidence<\/a> got a boost from falling oil prices and <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=998fe4bf12c678cbf30fe24c9cb6a215&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">new leadership in the U.S. government<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 On the other hand, yesterday\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Conference Board report confirms that the economy is in a deep recession (the confidence index is still at the lowest level on record since 1975) and points to further consumer spending declines in the coming quarters.\u00c2\u00a0 The release of preliminary Q3 real GDP growth in the U.S. (revised down to -0.5% from the initial -0.3%) displayed a downward revision to personal consumption from the original -3.1% down to -3.7%. Consumption is expected to be a significant drag on the economy for a while.\u00c2\u00a0 Analysts estimate that the fall in <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=8ba59c773acf4e6bcc83e81bccdcec14&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">energy prices<\/a> \u00e2\u20ac\u201c a reflection of <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=ee52473348ee1be3da3ed7d2bbc76427&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">falling U.S. demand<\/a> and a by-product of the fact that this <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=40696e1674a902afa759b9cd807259c2&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">severe recession is a global one<\/a> \u00e2\u20ac\u201c will boost real U.S. income by roughly $200bn (1.5% of GDP) but it is also.\u00c2\u00a0 On the back of this, <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=b293ebf49a16f627a972ae678cf46583&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. home prices keep falling<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=95556babf3da412ab8779ee8e4a62865&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">equity prices<\/a> may still be very far from the bottom and <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=29c5a9e73cf251896efe97a0e00c8171&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">employment losses<\/a> are mounting.<\/p>\n<p><!--more-->News on home prices is never good these days, but instead of getting better, it may still get worse. The <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=4be13598b85fcb55cc3713dabc53953e&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. housing sector is still far from stabilizing<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 Housing starts keep plunging, and demand keeps following supply downward.\u00c2\u00a0 As a result inventories are not getting worked off and remain at record highs; <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=eb3676fe166b00d373d2ee139a1906d2&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">downward pressure on home prices continues<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 Home prices (S&amp;P Case-Shiller C-10) are down 23% from the peak and the pace of decline keeps accelerating every month.\u00c2\u00a0 The fact that home prices have still a long way to go before reaching a bottom seems to be consensus at this point.\u00c2\u00a0 Back of the envelope computations suggest that the wealth losses for households related to the fall in home prices are roughly $3 trillion so far, and are clearly bound to increase further \u00e2\u20ac\u201c to eventually reach the $6-8 trillion range.\u00c2\u00a0 With a negative wealth effect of 6 cents on the dollar, the reduction in personal consumption could amount to a whopping $500bn.\u00c2\u00a0 Things would look even worse if we factor in the losses related to <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=889cc89f29c30e8e9c7733e5cb7e9fef&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">the decline in stock market prices<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 \u00c2\u00a0Retailers including <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=ab51325cfb95986a72e7478ce26d6ed8&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">chain stores<\/a>, luxury brands and online merchandize are taking a hit from declining consumers discretionary spending.\u00c2\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=c330da6509010bbdd05f45342e7f1fc5&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">Retail sales<\/a> were already down 15% during July-October period.\u00c2\u00a0 Moreover, stores expect holiday sales to plunge by almost 50 % this year taking the slump way into 2009.<\/p>\n<p>And after the residential real estate woes, commercial real estate could well be the next shoe to drop.\u00c2\u00a0 Last week, news that two big commercial mortgages that had been packaged into securities in the past year, were likely to default spooked the <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=12a88cba32ec56b941ab3354c61ba7bd&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">$800bn CMBS market<\/a> that usually follows the fate of the residential mortgage market with a lag of 2 years.<\/p>\n<p>The worsening credit crisis has caused a sudden spike in <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=0d61bf05171a54750ddb49073c1d5200&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">job losses and filing for jobless claims<\/a> in November.\u00c2\u00a0 While a hiring freeze across industries began in late-2007, lay-offs started escalating in Q3 as the credit crunch and demand contraction spread from the housing and <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=adc151d94a65e4d02f8594a556912065&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">financial sectors<\/a> to the corporate and service sectors, export and commodity industries.\u00c2\u00a0 Being a lagging indicator, monthly job losses are bound to hit the 300,000-350,000 range in 4Q08 and early-2009, taking the unemployment rate to 8.5-9% by late-2009\/early 2010.\u00c2\u00a0 The slow economic recovery, massive erosion of consumer wealth and demand and double-digit decline in industrial activity could cause job losses to continue for a few years into the recovery.\u00c2\u00a0 With mounting unemployment, we can expect the contraction in consumer spending to accentuate and defaults on consumer and auto loans, credit cards and mortgages to accelerate.<\/p>\n<p>While easing oil prices provided a breather to the <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=2f7977652db95c0738a7db2958832187&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">trade deficit<\/a>, the recent boom in exports is fading in the face of the strengthening dollar, trade credit crunch and more importantly, demand and manufacturing slowdown in export destinations like Japan, Europe, Asia ex-Japan and Latin America.\u00c2\u00a0 The contribution of net exports to GDP growth of 2.9% in Q2 and 1.1% to Q3 prevented the economy from contracting severely.\u00c2\u00a0 But net exports will slow to 0.5-1% in the coming quarters led by declining oil and non-oil import demand amid slowing consumer demand and manufacturing activity even as real export growth continues to fall through 2009.\u00c2\u00a0 This slowing, though still positive, trade contribution poses further downside risks to GDP growth.<\/p>\n<p>After taking a hit from high oil and commodity prices, the <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=63e8977c6a0d7938e7b958d3c0e3b0d3&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">manufacturing sector<\/a> is facing tight credit conditions and slowing domestic and export demand, leading firms to lower the sales forecast through 2009 and scaling down <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=0127b010c3cb1ca1633cad1eb4215285&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">inventories<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 Declining orders for durable and capital goods indicate that industrial production will decline significantly in 2009.\u00c2\u00a0 Plunging demand and corporate earnings will also cause a double-digit fall in business expenditure, at least through 2009, given that business sentiment especially for small firms are near record lows.\u00c2\u00a0 The <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=ba298e6f2c5d552a4752ff1823f2f76c&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">auto sector<\/a> is also in a perfect storm amid slumping vehicle sales and tight credit conditions.\u00c2\u00a0 But the recession might help pave the way for the much needed auto industry restructuring to improve fuel-efficiency and competitiveness of the Big Three automakers.<\/p>\n<p>Fiscal policy will play a pivotal role in 2009 as the Fed Funds rate approaches zero. \u00c2\u00a0Significant <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=7b31266b3a8e71568a7dd7d658ab0714&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">fiscal stimulus<\/a> will be needed during these 4-5 quarters to prevent significant growth contraction and deflation. Since any boost from tax cuts to households and businesses will be temporary, raising government spending via grants to deficit states and infrastructure spending would be more effective. \u00c2\u00a0While spending on infrastructure and green technology as endorsed by Obama can provide some stimulus during this prolonged growth slowdown, the extent of job creation would largely depend on the reallocation of the unemployed labor between sectors. \u00c2\u00a0Democrats are also pushing for unemployment benefits and food stamps which are well-targeted and have the largest bang-for-the-buck. \u00c2\u00a0While Obama has prioritized a large fiscal package as soon as he comes into office in Jan 2009, delays in Congress approval and actual implementation will make the stimulus less timely. \u00c2\u00a0Meanwhile a $500-700 bn stimulus along with other Treasury bailouts will push the <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=bc3ea02912949a10cc7c886991b8799e&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">fiscal deficit<\/a> in the $900bn to $1 trillion range in the next two years, especially as the recent revenue boom in corporate income and capital gains and dividend taxes are fading significantly.<\/p>\n<p>The recent readings of both the PPI and the CPI are showing the beginning of deflation.\u00c2\u00a0 Slack in goods markets with demand falling and supply excessive, slack in labor markets with sharp fall in employment and slack in commodity markets means lower inflation and actual deflation ahead \u00e2\u20ac\u201c with a concrete risk of falling in a liquidity trap.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 And given <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=30c1368d94cc52198d2bc3f80c749866&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">the costs and dangers of price deflation and the deadly deeds of debt deflation, central banks have to recur to unorthodox monetary policy<\/a> to address the liquidity trap and the severe liquidity and credit crunch.\u00c2\u00a0 The Federal Reserve has reached further into the <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=7ef223c230f6222cf14da979f2e560a0&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">box of unorthodox tools<\/a> by announcing <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=30bbc055cadbe0abc8d3847ab97fa576&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">direct purchases of $600bn in conforming MBS and agency bonds<\/a> ($500bn and $100bn, respectively.)\u00c2\u00a0 Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve is setting up a new $200bn <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=613213f44da6cc97d0fb9b78480efc0e&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF)<\/a> for investors of consumer loan-backed securities (i.e. credit cards, auto loans, home equity loans.)\u00c2\u00a0 The U.S. Treasury will backstop the first $20bn in credit losses.<\/p>\n<p>A few days ago the government was forced to provide a <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=6fb589ae4e7b457a21f77d309a0ece07&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">$306bn rescue package for Citigroup<\/a> whose toxic asset overhang prevents a return to normalcy even after the government\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s first $25bn capital injection under TARP.\u00c2\u00a0 Under the rescue program, Citi will be responsible for the first $29bn in writedowns; after that the losses will be shared between the government (90%) and Citi (10%) who has recourse to a loan from the Fed for this purpose.\u00c2\u00a0 In return, Treasury will get $7bn of preference shares with 8% dividend rate ($4bn to UST, $3bn to FDIC).\u00c2\u00a0 In addition, Treasury will inject another $20bn in capital, buying further preference shares under the TARP program.\u00c2\u00a0 Commentators seem to agree that action was necessary but worry that the terms are exceedingly lenient.<\/p>\n<p>And going forward there is another problem: 8,000 banks that are not \u00e2\u20ac\u02dctoo big to fail.\u00e2\u20ac\u2122\u00c2\u00a0 Many regional banks have important capital concentrations in the next leg of this debt-deflation story, <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=cefedf22e5f598f6cde49bf196f1d0f5&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">commercial real estate<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The backdrop to the renewed flurry of government interventions remains the <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=86be1d42e9b852cdb130dbd73870fedd&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">completely frozen credit environment<\/a> that is now gripping the non-financial corporate sector, both high-yield and investment grade.\u00c2\u00a0 The spreads in the cash bond markets went on to exceed their CDS counterparts and reached new record highs on November 21 as the specter of bankruptcy looms ever larger for automakers and manufacturers around the world.\u00c2\u00a0 Debt-ridden LBO companies are struggling to refinance or repay their debt while <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=95b1d1d410dc687d1e528401e42362db&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">private equity companies<\/a> face investor flight.\u00c2\u00a0 Importantly, the record spreads are not only driven by firesales but find some justification in the deterioration of credit quality down the rating scale.\u00c2\u00a0 Experts such as Edward Altman and also rating agencies predict a <a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/v\/?u=cdac0ff34079a16ad7b6ae87d1c9fd03&amp;g=2518&amp;c=444&amp;p=da7e9057a62f491fa7f1c2a32b6710bb&amp;t=1\" target=\"_blank\">record default wave<\/a> in the high-yield sector above 10%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With all eyes on traditional residential mortgages, analysts are now looking for clues in related asset classes for any signs of recessionary contagion. In his weekly review of the U.S. economy, Nouriel Roubini highlights the vulnerability of commercial mortgage back securities \u00e2\u20ac\u201c which typically lag their residential cousins by 2 years \u00e2\u20ac\u201c as well as [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_s2mail":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2,21,1],"tags":[62,47,19,122,121,71],"class_list":["post-426","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-finance-economics","category-financial-crisis","category-other","tag-banking-system","tag-contagion","tag-finance","tag-mortgages","tag-real-estate","tag-stimulus"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>next shoe to drop - The Rational Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/next-shoe-to-drop\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"next shoe to drop - The Rational Post\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With all eyes on traditional residential mortgages, analysts are now looking for clues in related asset classes for any signs of recessionary contagion. In his weekly review of the U.S. economy, Nouriel Roubini highlights the vulnerability of commercial mortgage back securities \u00e2\u20ac\u201c which typically lag their residential cousins by 2 years \u00e2\u20ac\u201c as well as [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/next-shoe-to-drop\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Rational Post\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2008-12-01T17:27:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2009-09-22T04:30:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/12\/bankrupt-producer-300x300.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"The Editor\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Editor\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/next-shoe-to-drop\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/next-shoe-to-drop\/\",\"name\":\"next shoe to drop - The Rational Post\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/next-shoe-to-drop\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/next-shoe-to-drop\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/12\/bankrupt-producer-300x300.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2008-12-01T17:27:27+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2009-09-22T04:30:30+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/#\/schema\/person\/283fe28dc4dbcdd4b4cf199931549e0b\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/next-shoe-to-drop\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/next-shoe-to-drop\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/next-shoe-to-drop\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/12\/bankrupt-producer.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/12\/bankrupt-producer.jpg\",\"width\":\"382\",\"height\":\"382\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/next-shoe-to-drop\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"next shoe to drop\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/\",\"name\":\"The Rational Post\",\"description\":\"A collection of essays and articles on the science of everyday life\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/#\/schema\/person\/283fe28dc4dbcdd4b4cf199931549e0b\",\"name\":\"The Editor\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f86e535a97f912bdd424fbc1e2e03c7cd61d620df1d67992619d98e857242139?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f86e535a97f912bdd424fbc1e2e03c7cd61d620df1d67992619d98e857242139?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"The Editor\"},\"description\":\"Founder of Freedom24\",\"sameAs\":[\"http:\/\/www.rationalpost.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/author\/admin\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"next shoe to drop - The Rational Post","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/freedom24.org\/rationalpost\/next-shoe-to-drop\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"next shoe to drop - The Rational Post","og_description":"With all eyes on traditional residential mortgages, analysts are now looking for clues in related asset classes for any signs of recessionary contagion. 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